Stress-test your strategy against three plausible futures: the driving uncertainties, what each future rewards, and the moves that are robust across all of them.
Run scenario planning for {{business}}. The uncertainties that keep us guessing: {{uncertainties}} (market, technology, regulation, competition — what could break differently).
Build: pick the 2 uncertainties with highest impact × lowest predictability (justify from my list), cross them into 3-4 named scenarios (a memorable name each; describe the world in 4-5 sentences — what customers do, who wins, what we'd wish we'd done), per scenario: how our current strategy fares (honest grade) and the moves that world rewards, then the synthesis that matters — the ROBUST moves (good in every scenario: do now), the OPTIONS (cheap now, valuable in one scenario: buy the option), the BETS (only pay off in one world: size accordingly), and the early-warning indicators per scenario — the signposts that tell us which world is arriving. Review cadence: which indicator we check quarterly.
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