Model a business decision in three scenarios with explicit driver assumptions — see where the downside really lives before committing.
Model this decision in scenarios: {{decision}} (what we're considering, the numbers I know: costs, expected revenue/savings, timeframes).
Build base/best/worst: identify the 3-5 drivers that actually move the outcome (volume, price, timing, cost overrun — from my situation), set assumptions per scenario WITH reasoning (worst case = plausible-bad, not apocalypse; base = what the evidence supports, not what we hope), compute the outcome per scenario (simple P&L impact and cash timing), and read it out: where the downside concentrates (which driver), the breakeven on the scariest driver ('works as long as we sell at least X'), what would make us exit early and the cost of exiting, and the verdict framing — is this bet sized appropriately for us?
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